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Star Wars Films
TFA Destroys Box Office
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<blockquote data-quote="Ian_C" data-source="post: 376929" data-attributes="member: 6115"><p>And here's me to bring it back into perspective. <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite2" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=";)" /></p><p></p><p>And no, this isn't even negativity about the movie. It's looking at the 'facts' with a more detailed eye, and not just the surface amount that is reported in the headlines, and trying to be as unbiased as possible.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Yes, it smashed the opening weekend in North America. Very impressive. However, it had the equivalent of a 4-day weekend. No other movie has ever opened at 7pm the day BEFORE, and counted those totals to its "one day" gross. No other movie has shown "marathons" at $60 a piece, and counted that towards opening day totals. So, right from the start, its totals were given a $47 million boost that no other movie had an opportunity to equal, especially important considering its Friday total was only $38 million ahead of Jurassic World with that bonus. Open it at midnight like the others, and therefore subtract that $47 million - and you get a much lower weekend total.</p><p></p><p>So what's fair?</p><p></p><p>Compare head to head Saturday and Sunday, where 24 hours of box office actually means 24 hours of box office. On Saturday, Jurassic World still rules, slightly with a $1 million advantage. On Sunday, it took #1 from JW by a whole $3 million. That suggests it's running neck and neck with JW in the early days, with each one sharing the lead Saturday and Sunday.</p><p></p><p>Internationally, it did NOT hit #1 of all time. Not even #2. JW is #1 with $316 million in overseas ticket sales. Harry Potter is #2 at $314 million. TFA is #3, with $281 million - a heavy $35 million off the lead. Sure, you counter with JW opening in China - and that gets negated by TFA opening a day earlier in North America, and 2-3 days earlier in Europe. I have demonstrated in the past that historically, only about 55% of any Star Wars worldwide gross comes from international - and the early going suggests this is not much different. </p><p></p><p>It was the killer North American opening that has given it a very slight $4 million lead into #1 worldwide total.</p><p></p><p>Now, the point was made that some said it would suffer from a December opening. That's most likely a shot at me. Doesn't matter, as it's untrue. I said it would have a magnificent opening weekend, and that is true. I said it would probably have a great second weekend - although Christmas Day falling on a Friday is going to cut into those totals next week, and New Year's will take a cut away the following week. What I <strong>REALLY </strong>said was that a December opening was going to negatively affect its total run - and I stand by that. It'll do great over the Christmas holidays, but in January, kids are back to school, and people are back to work. That takes a SERIOUS bite out of matinee and late evening showings, and historically, this is why blockbusters are reserved for summer releases.</p><p></p><p>Also factor in, how many of you guys have seen this 2+ times already? The opening weekend numbers were boosted by uber SW fans going multiple times, some boasting 5 times or more in the first few days. Unless you guys plan on going 3-5 times a week for the duration of its run, it's final total is going to rely on the general public retaining interest. I liked JW, but was surprised at how it lasted long term. The question now is really if TFA can match that long term interest from the general public. There is lots of love on fan boards and all the people we know on FB in our friend's lists, but there is also a lot of people underwhelmed too. Forget about my own opinions, the official review thread on rebelscum is full of supposed "haters" like myself. If it can't, then it'll still be huge, but will have a hard time earning another $400 million to beat JW for its final total.</p><p></p><p>I congratulate you guys on "officially" having the #1 opening weekend in history. Now we get to see what kind of legs it has and how front loaded its final total will be.</p><p></p><p>Ian</p><p></p><p>PS. Hoping this will be taken as an unbiased reply as it is meant, and avoid all the hate I got for expressing my displeasure in the film itself. Also hoping to avoid all the "I don't care about the money" posts, as this thread is specifically about box office numbers.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Ian_C, post: 376929, member: 6115"] And here's me to bring it back into perspective. ;) And no, this isn't even negativity about the movie. It's looking at the 'facts' with a more detailed eye, and not just the surface amount that is reported in the headlines, and trying to be as unbiased as possible. Yes, it smashed the opening weekend in North America. Very impressive. However, it had the equivalent of a 4-day weekend. No other movie has ever opened at 7pm the day BEFORE, and counted those totals to its "one day" gross. No other movie has shown "marathons" at $60 a piece, and counted that towards opening day totals. So, right from the start, its totals were given a $47 million boost that no other movie had an opportunity to equal, especially important considering its Friday total was only $38 million ahead of Jurassic World with that bonus. Open it at midnight like the others, and therefore subtract that $47 million - and you get a much lower weekend total. So what's fair? Compare head to head Saturday and Sunday, where 24 hours of box office actually means 24 hours of box office. On Saturday, Jurassic World still rules, slightly with a $1 million advantage. On Sunday, it took #1 from JW by a whole $3 million. That suggests it's running neck and neck with JW in the early days, with each one sharing the lead Saturday and Sunday. Internationally, it did NOT hit #1 of all time. Not even #2. JW is #1 with $316 million in overseas ticket sales. Harry Potter is #2 at $314 million. TFA is #3, with $281 million - a heavy $35 million off the lead. Sure, you counter with JW opening in China - and that gets negated by TFA opening a day earlier in North America, and 2-3 days earlier in Europe. I have demonstrated in the past that historically, only about 55% of any Star Wars worldwide gross comes from international - and the early going suggests this is not much different. It was the killer North American opening that has given it a very slight $4 million lead into #1 worldwide total. Now, the point was made that some said it would suffer from a December opening. That's most likely a shot at me. Doesn't matter, as it's untrue. I said it would have a magnificent opening weekend, and that is true. I said it would probably have a great second weekend - although Christmas Day falling on a Friday is going to cut into those totals next week, and New Year's will take a cut away the following week. What I [b]REALLY [/b]said was that a December opening was going to negatively affect its total run - and I stand by that. It'll do great over the Christmas holidays, but in January, kids are back to school, and people are back to work. That takes a SERIOUS bite out of matinee and late evening showings, and historically, this is why blockbusters are reserved for summer releases. Also factor in, how many of you guys have seen this 2+ times already? The opening weekend numbers were boosted by uber SW fans going multiple times, some boasting 5 times or more in the first few days. Unless you guys plan on going 3-5 times a week for the duration of its run, it's final total is going to rely on the general public retaining interest. I liked JW, but was surprised at how it lasted long term. The question now is really if TFA can match that long term interest from the general public. There is lots of love on fan boards and all the people we know on FB in our friend's lists, but there is also a lot of people underwhelmed too. Forget about my own opinions, the official review thread on rebelscum is full of supposed "haters" like myself. If it can't, then it'll still be huge, but will have a hard time earning another $400 million to beat JW for its final total. I congratulate you guys on "officially" having the #1 opening weekend in history. Now we get to see what kind of legs it has and how front loaded its final total will be. Ian PS. Hoping this will be taken as an unbiased reply as it is meant, and avoid all the hate I got for expressing my displeasure in the film itself. Also hoping to avoid all the "I don't care about the money" posts, as this thread is specifically about box office numbers. [/QUOTE]
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