I'll weigh in on this cuz I love playing the "snarky" old collector. There are a number of factors of why prices are increasing. 1. An increase in the number of Gen X'ers who are becoming empty nesters and near The height of their earning potential. 2. A dramatic increase in the number of speculators. They collect grades not toys. 3. A plethora of new collectors who have absolutely no clue what they are doing. 4. Ridiculous movie hype for what will likely be a less than stellar movie. 5. Unstable world economy and no confidence in conventional markets. 6. Any other reason
For those new to the hobby, vintage did tank for awhile after the release of Episode I. So there is hope. I say wait until the movie flops, then get your stuff. Don't follow the hype train. Here are my predictions. All the "investors" will try to unload this summer or fall. These are investors, day traders I like to call them, and will try to unload at the best time...likely next summer or fall. They likely won't make anything, and will be lucky to sell at all the prices shelled out originally. Does the housing market come to mind here? Personally, I don't think they will be able to sell it. The market could implode after the movie, with prices like they are today, as well as amount of stuff that really is available. Like it or not guys, the prices now ARE INSANE!! You can argue that whenever someone says "that's the market" it's usually a euphemism for greed. This hobby really isn't a hobby anymore. In my opinion, it's all about money. Nothing more. Most collectors left when the prices exceeded their pocket book. Do you eat or buy a 12 back Vader? Just like everything else now, you really have only a select few driving the market. Once they leave, that'll be it. It happened to Joe and transformers. You can't give GI Joe away now it seems. Much different than 5 years ago. You had a few people driving the market in Joe, once they left, it imploded. Thinking that this stuff will continue to increase as it deteriorates is honestly wishful thinking in my opinion. Further, AFA is getting worse in their grading. You can't trust the grade given. Stuff that should have been an 85 gets a 75 and stuff that should have been a 75 gets an 80 or higher. So, if AFA implodes, the investors will bail. Too much scum and villainy on ebay to trust used/unused/MOC, etc. When this all happens, prices will readjust themselves to normal market sustaining levels. Corrections always come. It's just a matter of when. Honestly, I think toy shows will continue to be on the rise once again. The circle is now complete. When I started, toy shop, shows and magazines were where it was at. I think it will continue to return to that trend. Oh, and another interesting note, people often stop collecting anything when they reach into their late 50's and early 60's. So, not that much longer for the older Gen X'ers.