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Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Discuss vintage Kenner and Palitoy Star Wars toys from the 1977-1985 era.
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Taffius
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Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby Taffius » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:27 pm

Have prices peaked?


Will we see in the near future any peak in prices or reductions for loose figures?

Thought I'd ask? :lol:

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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby yoda » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:34 pm

I don't believe they have peaked just yet. With more of these movies now planned I think the interest will keep building on these vintage figures. At this stage I've now more or less accepted it's going to be very hard for me to complete my goal of owning a loose set of every figure.
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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby wrighty » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:47 am

I do have a feeling that things are not moving as fast as they did 6 or 12 months ago. I think the market is just over saturated with the common stuff including blue snag and VCJ. However rare and pre-production stuff there will always be a market and that is when the behind the scenes collectors show themselves. :lol:

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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby subzero » Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:52 am

I can't see why prices on a lot of loose and MOC won't at least double over the next 10 years, the common stuff maybe not so much.

But like a lot of people have already mentioned lately there's a lot of value in MOC's at the moment too, some loose figures aren't actually too far away from what a MOC costs. Take Lumat for example, loose, complete & mint you're looking at about £50, but MOC in decent condition iv'e seen go for like £80 a couple of times, just an extra £30 for an untouched sealed one on nice condition card?, there's great value there. And a loose AT-ST driver mint & complete £35 - £40, yet MOC you can pick up for about £60+

I think MOC especially has a much longer way to go yet when more and more collectors start taking advantage of carded figure prices, I can possibly see MOC values rising more than what loose will over the next few years.
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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby Taffius » Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:08 am

subzero wrote:
I think MOC especially has a much longer way to go yet when more and more collectors start taking advantage of carded figure prices, I can possibly see MOC values rising more than what loose will over the next few years.


Good points raised here. Actually bought a couple of carded figures that were not expensive, because I thought their value vs loose was worth it. Wouldnt say no to beater mocs at all.
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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby Taffius » Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:10 am

yoda wrote:I don't believe they have peaked just yet. With more of these movies now planned I think the interest will keep building on these vintage figures. At this stage I've now more or less accepted it's going to be very hard for me to complete my goal of owning a loose set of every figure.


Feel for you there. In same boat. Even started going against top advice (buy figures complete with weapons) in order just to have figures I have never owned before. Not what I intended at all!
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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby Taffius » Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:12 am

wrighty wrote:I do have a feeling that things are not moving as fast as they did 6 or 12 months ago. I think the market is just over saturated with the common stuff including blue snag and VCJ. However rare and pre-production stuff there will always be a market and that is when the behind the scenes collectors show themselves. :lol:


Peaks and levels perhaps. Not seeing troughs?

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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby Pomse2001 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:37 am

I hope we will see the prices go down to the same prices in the good old days, but I don't think it will happen :(

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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby Mini99 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:15 pm

What concerns me about the price of loose figures being very close to MOC’s, is that some may be tempted to open a MOC!
Anyway if you look at R2 pop up, isn’t there some loose that have far exceeded MOC prices?
Strange times!

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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby subzero » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:21 pm

Mini99 wrote:What concerns me about the price of loose figures being very close to MOC’s, is that some may be tempted to open a MOC!


Exactly what iv'e thought before, the U grade idiots would definitely benefit from this.
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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby Wreck-It Ralph » Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:20 pm

I don't think it's Strange times it's just that Loose Figures are appreciating quicker than MOC and in some instances overtaking them. U grading would not for the most part exist if this was not happening. MOC is becoming rarer (due to U grading) and still loose figures are catching up with them and in some cases out exhilarating them. This is why in my opinion MOC is undervalued at present.
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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby choffialoopa » Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:21 pm

90 Loose figures are much easier to display than 90 Mocs. So market segment for Mocs is much smaller and their desire is more grounded with solid veteran collectors. Hence the slower price jumps. Loose figures are marred by flippers and investors, who push prices up. Even close to Mocs. Which is indeed concerning as you point out.

It is traumatic tbh. Irreversible, and harms the legitimacy of dreams for genuine collectors to one day own all Mocs. If that dream , however unlikely, fades,so does the depth of collecting and with that its appeal.

Sub note on accessories:
I recently met up with a company who is pioneering in 3D printing in a business venture (automobile spare parts). Out of curiosity I brought a black Endor blaster. The high end machines can easily manufacture exact texture, color and density and at least 100 times as small details as the small ruffles on the end of the blaster... (We reviewed a machine costing 600.000£ and matearial way way up there) In 10 years they’ll be mainstream. It only takes one night to produce 100 of those. The seller of those won’t make much due to material price and time investment and machine runtime etc. but some will do it eventually. The aftermath of 3D print will haunt the accessory loose figure market in 10 years time.

I imagine that will impact Moc prizes dramatically upwards.

My 2 cents: get your hands on your favorite Mocs no matter how scarred before those prices blow up In a handful of years and invent a cool way to display them.

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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby subzero » Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:26 pm

Very true, it's exactly what iv'e said before, 3D printing hasn't even started yet, right now 3D printers when comparing them to where ink printers were at, are like dot matrix at the moment in terms of how advanced they are, but in a few years yes the detail they will create will be on such a fine scale that anything can be copied as a 100% exact match and we won't be able to tell the difference, which is quite a scary thought.

So that's a good point I can actually see MOC prices rising because of that, because you'll know if you have a genuine sealed card that you'll know the weapon is guaranteed genuine and your figure is actually complete.

If reproduction weapons end up as 100% exact matches then prices on original weapons could plummet, because people just won't know if they're buying an original. So we could actually see a reversal in prices of loose going back down and MOC rising quite a lot.
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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby jared007 » Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:58 am

As an intermission to this discussion and to give some hope for prices to come down, here's a slide I put together for my celebration panel in 2016 that shows the rise and fall of boxed 12 inch figures over a 15 year period (based on guide prices from various guides through the years). The moral - what goes up must come down ... eventually. But no one knows the *eventually* until it happens.

Slide29.JPG


Here's the same idea done with loose complete first 12 figures for the same period.

Slide28.JPG


Here was the state of things at mid 2016 for loose complete first 12 figures based on previous 3 years of Star Wars Tracker data. Clearly still rising. I need to update this graph to see how it has continued since then ...

Slide11.JPG
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Digital vintage price guide and portfolio system: http://www.starwarstracker.com

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Re: Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Postby Taffius » Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:49 am

jared007 wrote:As an intermission to this discussion


Jared, great data. Are plans to run graphs like this within the Tracker app?

Be great to get a snapshot now to see where loose and carded figures are post TLJ and Solo/next episode?


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