Have prices peaked? Where are they going?

Wreck-It Ralph said:

What are your thoughts on MOC do you think that will drop also?

Click to expand...

I've actually been back in amongst it buying MOC again after a 2 year break or so. I see quite good deals out there if you have the patience to hunt for them. So yes, I think in some cases prices have already been dropping.

Taffius said:

Jared, great data. Are plans to run graphs like this within the Tracker app?

Be great to get a snapshot now to see where loose and carded figures are post TLJ and Solo/next episode?

Click to expand...

Well, you can already do this sort of thing in the desktop version. All depends on the kind of question you have, and you can pretty much do your own data mining. I had some specific questions for the Celebration panel, so just made it look a bit more presentable

stu70 said:

chrisfnx said:

Speaking to fellow collectors, I think perhaps that prices could stabilise or maybe decrease as people who grew up with the toys etc start to die off

Click to expand...

I grew up with the toys, and at 47 I hope I've got a few years left yet!

Click to expand...

Same here, I did too. What I meant was in the future, 40 years down the line

jared007 said:

Wreck-It Ralph said:

What are your thoughts on MOC do you think that will drop also?

Click to expand...

I've actually been back in amongst it buying MOC again after a 2 year break or so. I see quite good deals out there if you have the patience to hunt for them. So yes, I think in some cases prices have already been dropping.

Click to expand...

What do you think will happen with prices when the collectors like us (people that actually played with these toys as children) have moved on? Comics have continued to rise in price even though the collectors that bought them as Children are no longer around will Star Wars be the same or nosedive?

jared007 said:

Taffius said:

Jared, great data. Are plans to run graphs like this within the Tracker app?

Be great to get a snapshot now to see where loose and carded figures are post TLJ and Solo/next episode?

Click to expand...

Well, you can already do this sort of thing in the desktop version. All depends on the kind of question you have, and you can pretty much do your own data mining. I had some specific questions for the Celebration panel, so just made it look a bit more presentable

Click to expand...

Thanks Jared. I will have a look now - keep forgetting about my version on my surface pro!

What do you think will happen with prices when the collectors like us (people that actually played with these toys as children) have moved on? Comics have continued to rise in price even though the collectors that bought them as Children are no longer around will Star Wars be the same or nosedive?

Click to expand...

its worth mentioning im 25, i guess im a second generation collector, or third generation if you see its as:
first: the kids who were lucky enough to buy and play with the toys new
second:those who started collecting during "the dark times" of the nineties when star wars was dead
third:those, myself included who started collecting since the prequels newer films released, driving all this hype everyone is talking about.

i like to think i have at least 60 years in me yet, which should give me plenty of time to track down the last eleven loose figures i need at non mental prices and start on the ships and play sets. i have no plans to stop collecting or change my area of interest, and have been collecting six or seven years, since my late teens. so no, i don't think once the older collectors start dropping like flies or put in homes it'll go back to nineties prices since the next generation will keep going. just my ten pence

Will we see a drop in all types of Star Wars sales everywhere?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43300087

BBC report above reflects a drop in profits for Lego. Why is this related to SW I hear you say? Well a "global toy analyst (a Ms Tutt)" claims that:

"...in 2017 there "was a bit too much of Star Wars, not just in Lego, but everywhere", she says. After three years of successive marketing the market was slightly saturated, she says."

Standby to pick up all those bargains everyone! :lol:

Taffius said:

Will we see a drop in all types of Star Wars sales everywhere?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43300087

BBC report above reflects a drop in profits for Lego. Why is this related to SW I hear you say? Well a "global toy analyst (a Ms Tutt)" claims that:

"...in 2017 there "was a bit too much of Star Wars, not just in Lego, but everywhere", she says. After three years of successive marketing the market was slightly saturated, she says."

Standby to pick up all those bargains everyone! :lol:

Click to expand...

BBC, or as I like to call them Blatant Bull Crap. :lol:

Taffius said:

Will we see a drop in all types of Star Wars sales everywhere?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43300087

BBC report above reflects a drop in profits for Lego. Why is this related to SW I hear you say? Well a "global toy analyst (a Ms Tutt)" claims that:

"...in 2017 there "was a bit too much of Star Wars, not just in Lego, but everywhere", she says. After three years of successive marketing the market was slightly saturated, she says."

Standby to pick up all those bargains everyone! :lol:

Click to expand...

Re Lego, I think it's more about over-saturation of uninspiring re-released sets over and over again as opposed to anything else. Take a look at the BB8 / Scout Walker set from episode 8, it's crazy overpriced for a tiny set. But the quality sets and Lego generally still sells really well.

As for vintage stuff, prices were due to level of but too many people are way too heavily invested in the prices they paid for things to allow a big sell off. There just aren't enough desperate sellers :lol:

More stock hitting the market will affect price, I foresee a huge fall in Pali 20 Walrusman values shortly :lol: :lol:

I think it is impossible to say if prices have peaked yet as it depends what you collect. I currently collect Palitoy 12 - 45A back and there is nothing for sale and without sales how can you determine whether prices have peaked or not. I have spoken to another collector who is contemplating exiting collecting as he no longer considers himself a collector due to the fact there is nothing to buy. I am starting to switch my attentions to comics as I find Palitoy collecting very frustrating and waiting years to buy one piece is not my idea of fun. Comics maybe expensive but at least they are available. I guess if myself and other collectors like me go down this path then eventually prices may drop unless new collectors come in to replace us.

I posted about this in another thread. I have just restarted collecting again after several years and I'm absolutely discusted how much vc jawas and dt Lukes have become. It's not like they are that rare. Wish I'd of kept mine.

TWOFOOT said:

I posted about this in another thread. I have just restarted collecting again after several years and I'm absolutely discusted how much vc jawas and dt Lukes have become. It's not like they are that rare. Wish I'd of kept mine.

Click to expand...

Welcome back

For the last 6-12 months I've been saying prices are going to stabilise or come down and I'm fairly happy to see evidence of that in the last 6 months. Loose figures are no longer on their exponential rise and do seem to have peaked. VCJs have been seen back in the high 3 figures rather than 4 figures which seemed to be the regular ask. MOCs, well, a different story, really; common MOCs are no longer being snapped up the moment they're listed here or on FB. Sellers are being forced to ask sensible money for Prune Faces, Bib Fortunas and Chief Chirpas. More desirable pieces, such as the Palitoy branded items and certainly Harbert, LL, GDE, Toltoys, etc....where have they all gone? Into collections and stayed there. And this will be the new norm until some of the larger collectors sell off their collections. Where once "black hole collections" conjured up images of millionaires who never needed to sell it now extends to average joes (no offence any Joes out there) who collect a particular cardback. Why? Very simple: These collectors started back 3 or 4 years ago (like me), collected this, that, the other and finally settled on a focus and that focus wouldn't be the common stuff because they'd already bought that. I could go on but I'm boring myself here.

In summary: common MOCs will stay low/come down. Rarer will continue to rise for a while yet. Loose have reached their peak for the reasons discussed here (such a repros) and more.

In summary: common MOCs will stay low/come down. Rarer will continue to rise for a while yet. Loose have reached their peak for the reasons discussed here (such a repros) and more.

^ agree with all that.

- sold quite a few loosies recently and prices on everyday figs seem to have fallen since last year (can't give away most of the ROTJ figs). Not good for my bank balance (as I was selling) - but good for the hobby I think. Loose shouldn't cost thaaat much and the prices got silly. Got to the point where it was hard to justify buying loose as not much different to moc.

Excellent analysis Simon, I wish you'd continued it's not boring!

Some great depth to the questions so many thanks. I have not seen much difference in prices but have not got time in the hobby yet to see affects you guys have.

Great insight and thanks again to all contributors.