MOC Rarity

sith-smith said:

The 21b v 21 Fett is a good example of how rarity is not always the deciding factor in value.

The Fett is a very popular piece and demand for one is high among many collectors willing to pay a high price.

The same is true of the DT Ben.

They maybe niche, but it's a much larger niche than the 21b fills.

The 21b is rarer than a 30b Fett, but you can almost guarantee the demand for the 30b is higher and consequently the price will be.

A rarity list will only ever be a brief snapshot into someone's experience which can be rendered out of date in a short period of time.

Take the Palitoy VCJ as an example. There were none for long then most of us have been collecting. Then there was 1 and then within a few years there's like half a dozen or so.

Rarity is a difficult thing around which to base your collecting.

If you're collecting from 12-45b, then the for you, the ones you haven't got are going to be the rarer ones, within the context of your collecting.

I know that doesn't help much in knowing where you're likely to be spending more money, but as I think several of us have said, rarity is not always the key.

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I agree the demand for a 45A 2-1B is far less making it more Niche but it didn't stop it from selling for over 8K. In an Auction you don't need high demand all you need is two people.

Exactly. A point made several times

maxf said:

Wreck-It Ralph said:

even when I ask about it I hear nothing.

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Is that really true? I'm sure you've asked me about rarity before and I've been quite open with what I know... same for others. Aren't there even threads on here about rarity with loads of replies?

I don't think rarity is a secret at all - it's just that most people don't post about it, and if they do there are so many areas to cover that it might not give what you want anyway.

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You probably have been open with me and shared what you know as some others have too, I am not sure what threads there are.

Andyclarke said:

sith-smith said:

Also rarity changes, not just from time to time, but from person to person. This is because so much of our understanding of rarity comes from collectors' own, personal experience.

All anyone can give you is what their experience is. And that's never likely to be absolute.

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Gary has hit the nail on the head. Only a couple of years into collecting I picked up 2 30 back Luke X Wings from two different sources within a few months. I thought Luke X Wing 30 backs must have been common!

I have a good understanding of what's rare and what isn't but it is only through 20+ years of collecting experience, following auctions, networking and retaining that genuine interest and excitement in Palitoy that has provided that inner knowledge. I still get a massive thrill from seeing new pieces out there even though I've been priced out of the market for the highly publicised stuff and no chance of acquiring them. Every time there's a sale it goes into the old memory bank and somehow sticks, just in case another crosses my path.

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When I restarted collecting I had the opportunity of buying a few rare pieces that I passed on as I had no idea of their rarity. I have not had the opportunity in buying those again hence the reason for my obsession with rarity and unfortunately I don't have 20+ years collecting experience.

I doubt anyone knows the answer to this but I thought I would ask, which is rarer a Palitoy 45C or 65 back Luke X Wing?

Wreck-It Ralph said:

I doubt anyone knows the answer to this but I thought I would ask, which is rarer a Palitoy 45C or 65 back Luke X Wing?

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To be honest, I had no idea either were rare until recently!

I'm guessing you are right though...nobody knows the answer.

I certainly don't!

If it's rarity as in available for sale or trade publicly, simple answer is neither have turned up for a long long time until one of each recently so currently both as rare as each other. Regarding in existence I too really don't know but am pretty sure a fair few of each are out there being such a popular figure and Luke actually being in his X-Wing outfit in ROTJ so a fair few would have been produced I'm sure.

Also, don't know how significant this is but I have seen a few more 45C cardbacks than 65s.

The next version of Star Wars Tracker (www.starwarstracker.com) is going to be including functionality to have a go at answering these questions. Since I now have 5+ years of good quality data, it's possible to make connections and rank all the sales against each other. Not only prices being paid, but the number of times certain variations come to market. Screenshot to illustrate:



I decided an interesting split is to track ranking at the current year level (2020 as of this post) and then also at the *all time* level. You would expect towards the end of the year that these levels will converge. But if a seasonal trend took hold that year, then maybe not (eg the loose Leia boom of a couple years ago).

For a *perfectly functioning market* you would expect to see a low (red) availability ranking with a high (green) valuable ranking. However, this expectation is broken all over the place.

It's of course reporting Star Wars Tracker data, but it's probably the most comprehensive data set around for our hobby. And from what I've seen so far, this is going to be quite an eye opener! And maybe even a little confronting too